February 10, 2011
A combination of the trucking industry trying to catch up with the economic recovery and adapting to government regulations that are still being developed will extend a capacity shortage through 2013, a trucking economist said at an online seminar Feb. 10.
Image by Getty Images via @daylifeThe shortfall will peak above 250,000 units in 2012 but continue at about 150,000 units in 2013, predicted Noel Perry, a senior consultant with FTR Associates and principal of Transportation Fundamentals. He said the industry is pursuing productivity increases through greater utilization of existing equipment, and miles per tractor were up more than 10 percent in 2010. Without that productivity improvement, “this crisis could be twice as bad, peaking at around 400,000 units,” he said.
Perry added that capacity utilization has recovered to above 90 percent, but rate increases haven’t kept pace. He said carriers are more productive and profitable, without increasing rates much. “From now on if a [carrier] wants to handle more freight, he is going to have to hire drivers and buy equipment,” he said.
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